News Analysis: ‘I am trying to stay alive.’ Jobs at mom-and-pop shops are disappearing - Community Volume Signals

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Small businesses with fewer than ten employees have experienced 13 consecutive months of job cuts, according to analysis from the U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee, based on Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index data. The sector eliminated 292,200 positions in 2025 alone, representing a dramatic acceleration from the 87,800 jobs lost in 2024. This contraction rate exceeds even pandemic-era losses, with small businesses cutting four times more positions in recent months compared to 2020. The job losses align closely with President Trump's implementation of sweeping global tariffs in April 2025, which the Supreme Court subsequently struck down. Industries most exposed to trade disruptions experienced the steepest employment declines: retail shed 41,700 positions, manufacturing lost 38,600 jobs, construction eliminated 17,700 positions, and wholesale operations cut 10,400 roles between April 2025 and April 2026. Business owners report being unable to fully pass increased costs to price-sensitive consumers, forcing difficult decisions about workforce reductions. Meanwhile, new business formation remains robust, with entrepreneurs filing 1.56 million business applications between November and January—the highest three-month total since at least 2004—suggesting continued entrepreneurial dynamism despite operational challenges. News Analysis: ‘I am trying to stay alive.’ Jobs at mom-and-pop shops are disappearingObserving correlations across asset classes can improve hedging strategies. Traders may adjust positions in one market to offset risk in another.Alerts help investors monitor critical levels without constant screen time. They provide convenience while maintaining responsiveness.News Analysis: ‘I am trying to stay alive.’ Jobs at mom-and-pop shops are disappearingInvestor psychology plays a pivotal role in market outcomes. Herd behavior, overconfidence, and loss aversion often drive price swings that deviate from fundamental values. Recognizing these behavioral patterns allows experienced traders to capitalize on mispricings while maintaining a disciplined approach.

Key Highlights

**Employment Data:** Mom-and-pop shops have eliminated 292,200 jobs in 2025, marking the most severe contraction since systematic tracking commenced. The 13-month streak of consecutive job losses significantly outpaces the 87,800 positions eliminated throughout 2024. **Industry Impact:** Employment declines between April 2025 and April 2026 concentrated in retail (-41,700), manufacturing (-38,600), construction (-17,700), and wholesale (-10,400) sectors—all categories with substantial tariff exposure. **Cost Escalation:** Small manufacturers report component price increases reaching 400%, with payment delays extending 90 days or more. Diesel costs have surged to approximately $7 per gallon in certain markets, adding transportation expense pressures. **Revenue Decline:** The affected industries have experienced significant monthly revenue reductions since April 2025, compounding employment pressures. **Business Formation:** Despite operational difficulties, March business applications reached approximately 492,000, while the November-to-January period recorded 1.56 million applications—the strongest three-month performance in over two decades. **Wage and Tax Developments:** The administration has implemented tax policies benefiting small businesses, including permanent small business deductions, 100% equipment expensing, and tip tax exemption provisions for certain workers. News Analysis: ‘I am trying to stay alive.’ Jobs at mom-and-pop shops are disappearingSome traders adopt a mix of automated alerts and manual observation. This approach balances efficiency with personal insight.The integration of multiple datasets enables investors to see patterns that might not be visible in isolation. Cross-referencing information improves analytical depth.News Analysis: ‘I am trying to stay alive.’ Jobs at mom-and-pop shops are disappearingThe availability of real-time information has increased competition among market participants. Faster access to data can provide a temporary advantage.

Expert Insights

The distress facing America's smallest businesses represents a critical test for economic policy, with implications extending far beyond the affected enterprises themselves. Joe Brusuelas, chief U.S. economist at RSM, observed that smaller firms possess limited capital depth to weather external shocks, leaving them with three primary options when confronted with cost increases: absorb the expense and compress margins, raise prices and risk customer attrition, or reduce headcount. "While many employ a combination of the three or all three, the net result is higher inflation and rising unemployment," Brusuelas noted, articulating the difficult trade-offs confronting small business operators across multiple industries. The timing of tariff implementation appears significant. The most aggressive layoffs occurred after April 2025, coinciding with the rollout of comprehensive global tariff measures. Small manufacturers, in particular, report component delays and unprecedented price escalation—increases that cannot be readily passed to customers operating with shrinking budgets. This dynamic creates a squeeze that threatens business viability regardless of operational competence. The divergent employment trajectories between the smallest businesses and slightly larger small enterprises merit attention. While firms employing one to 49 workers continued adding positions—gaining 526,000 jobs in the most recent year—operations with fewer than ten workers experienced substantial contraction. This disparity suggests that smaller scale confers disadvantage during periods of economic volatility, as these businesses lack the capital reserves, diversified revenue streams, and financing options available to somewhat larger competitors. The resilience of business formation activity offers a cautiously optimistic counterpoint. Strong entrepreneurial application rates indicate continued confidence in economic opportunity, though lag times between application filing and operational employment generation mean these new ventures will not immediately address current labor market pressures. Looking ahead, energy costs have emerged as an additional concern, with geopolitical tensions driving diesel and fuel prices higher. For businesses dependent on transportation, manufacturing, or temperature-controlled operations, these expenses represent yet another variable cost beyond management control. The Trump administration has emphasized regulatory reduction and tax relief as growth catalysts, pointing to permanent deductions and expanded expensing provisions. However, the immediate operational reality for many small business owners remains challenging, with profit margins typically under 10 percent leaving minimal buffer against external shocks. The gap between policy intent and grassroots economic experience appears substantial, suggesting potential structural headwinds for employment in the sector regardless of policy direction. News Analysis: ‘I am trying to stay alive.’ Jobs at mom-and-pop shops are disappearingHistorical volatility is often combined with live data to assess risk-adjusted returns. This provides a more complete picture of potential investment outcomes.Real-time monitoring of multiple asset classes can help traders manage risk more effectively. By understanding how commodities, currencies, and equities interact, investors can create hedging strategies or adjust their positions quickly.News Analysis: ‘I am trying to stay alive.’ Jobs at mom-and-pop shops are disappearingSome investors use trend-following techniques alongside live updates. This approach balances systematic strategies with real-time responsiveness.